BC Contenders: Moonshine Mullin

Division: Classic

Name: Moonshine Mullin
Year Born: 2008
Sex: Horse
Sire: Albert the Great
Dam: Mullen Road
Broodmare Sire: Distant View
Trainer: Randy Morse
Owner: Randy Patterson

Profile: It may seem like that Moonshine Mullin has come out of nowhere to becoming one of the top older males in the US. However, in 2011 he chased Stay Thirsty (Bernardini) in his Jim Dandy (2nd) and Travers (6th) wins. The latter he finished ahead of Shackleford (Forestry). The Alysheba was not only his 1st graded stakes win, but the first time he had been in a gs since the 2012 Texas Mile where he finished 5th. He would show that was no fluke when he upset the defending Classic runner up Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song) in the Stephen Foster.

Replay:


Why he will win?: The top Classic horses this year are 3yo's. That being said, since 9 of the 29 individual winners have been three year olds. This comes out to to a percentage of 31%, if you include Tiznow's second win this percentage comes out to 30%. The Older Horses have been very inconsistent this year... with the exception of him.

Why he won't win?: A small injury knocked him out of a Charles Town race and hasn't worked since the end of July. No horse over the age of 5 has won the Classic, Moonshine Mullin is six. He also has to prove he can win outside of the Mid-West (his recent wins have been at Remington, Churchill and Oaklawn).

Will he win?: The Classic in theory is wide open. Sure Shared Belief will likely be the favorite for that race, but he isn't a lock. Keep in mind, pace could be a major factor this year and Moonshine Mullin could be a beneficiary to that. He is certinally a candidate to be in the top 5.

BC Contenders: Noble Mission

Division: Turf

Name: Noble Mission (GB)

Year Born: 2009

Sex: Horse

Sire: Galileo (IRE)

Dam: Kind (IRE)

Broodmare Sire: Danehill

Trainer: Lady Jane Cecil

Owner: Juddmonte Farm

Profile: His late trainer Sir Henry Cecil was one of the best trainers in Europe and had done well in the Breeders' Cup with his highlight being the 2009 Filly and Mare Turf win by Midday and 3^rd place the same year in the Classic with Twice Over. However, his best known horse was Frankel who is named after Juddmonte's late American trainer multiple BC race winner Bobby Frankel. Noble Mission is Frankel's little brother and looks to have finally found that winning edge that his brother is famous for.

Before this year, he had won 3 stakes races, two of them where listed and the third the Group 3 Gordon in 2012 where he defeated Encke who would go on to deny Camelot the British Triple Crown. Since late April of this year, he has picked up wins in several group stakes including the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh where he defeated last year's Turf winner Magician. He lost by a head in his last start at Saint-cloud and is being considered for the King George IV and Queen Elizabeth Stakes which is a WAYI for the Turf.

Here is his Gold Cup win:

Why He Will Win: His owner has had done success in the Breeders' Cup, especially the Hasili foals (which he isn't, but he's from another excellent broodmare). His dam's ½ brother Powerscourt (GB) (Saddler's Wells) crossed the wire in first twice in the US (although the first time was a DQ) and was 3^rd in the Turf in 2004 (finishing right behind Champion Turf Horse that year Kitten's Joy (El Prado (IRE)) in a race that was won by Better Talk Now (Talkin Man)).

Why He Won't Win: Other than not coming over, it's the fact that the firm Santa Anita surface may end not suiting him (unless it rains, which is likely doubtful). Also he is likely a horse where a mile and a half maybe too long for him in the US, but he could be fine in Europe.

Will He Win?: If the Americans look like how they do now, he certinally has a chance. After all UN winner Main Sequence won in his US debut. He is the closest we are going to get to seeing a Frankel sib race in the US' biggest stage (his brother Morpheus (GB) (Oasis Dream (GB)) hasn't shown the same promise in New York).

BC Contenders: Clearly Now

This is the first post in a new series of posts called BC contenders. Twice a month, 2 horses (1 per post) will be featured for a division. These posts will include a profile, as well as pros and cons on winning the race.

Division: Dirt Mile/Sprint

Name: Clearly Now

Year Born: 2010

Sex: Colt

Sire: Horse Greeley

Dam: Bend

Broodmare Sire: Arch

Trainer: Brian Lynch

Owner: Up Hill Stable

Profile: Even though he has only won once this year, Clearly Now has only one the off the board finish (Met Mile). At his prefered sprint distances he has finished no worse than 3^rd, that includes his win in the Belmont Sprint Championship (formally the James Marvin) in his last race. Even though he perfers a distance 7 furlongs or shorter, he did finish third in last year's Holy Bull. However his two G1 mile starts since didn't go as well.

Why He'll Win: The sprint division really has had a problem the past couple of years in that there has been no standout. Secret Circle, the defending Sprint champion hasn't raced since February. Points offthebench, the Eclipse Champion for the division sadly broke down before last year's Breeders' Cup and had to be euthanzied. In fact, no favorite has won the Sprint since Midnight Lute's first win in 2007 (he was not the favorite in his second win (08)). We really won't know the three year old picture until the King's Bishop towards the end of the Saratoga meet.

Why He Won't: If he where a female then the 7 furlong distance would be great for him. Sadly, he seems to be in a little bit of a pickle. The 6 furlongs of the Sprint might be too short for him, and even though the Dirt Mile on paper looks to be a better race for him, he might not be good enough to hang with the likes of Goldencents, Palace Malice (if he doesn't go to the Classic), Itsmyluckyday ect.

Which race will he go into?: I'm thinking he will more than likely the Sprint, but would not be surprised if does go in the Dirt Mile.

Will he win?: Which ever race he ends up in, I'm not sure he'll win the Sprint (unless he wins a race like the Vanderbilt) but he will def hit the board. The Dirt Mile could be loaded and he would be up against it.