Saturday, September 20, 2014

Top Horses List: Week 9


Super Saturday won't be for one more and the Classic picture has changed dramatically. Lets take a look at the new list for both the Distaff and Classic.

Distaff

Rank Horse (Sire) Trainer Profile
1 Close Hatches (First Defense) Mott With her main nemesis retired, should air in the Breeders' Cup, unless the real Beholder shows up.
2 Beholder (Into Mischief) Mandella She loves Santa Anita and the next two starts are there. Wouldn't be any bit surprised if she wins her third Breeders' Cup race.
3 Iotapa (Afleet Alex) Sadler If Beholder is not the same horse... she will be your likely Zenyatta winner.
4 Untapable (Tapit) Asmussen Her Cotillion win very likely wrapped up 3yo honors for her... but don't be surprised if Stopchargingmaria beats her on Holloween.
5 Stopchargingmaria (Tale of the Cat) Pletcher Even though the winner of the Cotillion overcame the track bias... maybe it was a good thing she scratched. Beldame is next.
6 Broken Sword (Broken Vow) Hollendorfer Under the radar... hopefully she can stay that way for the BC.
7 Sweet Reason (Street Sense) Gyarmati More likely for the F/M Sprint... but ran pretty well in the Cotillion. Ran okay in the Juvenile Fillies last year.
8 Fiftyshadesofhey (Pulpit) Baffert Did she well on the slop for a reason? Hopefully she can duplicate that onto a fast track.
9 Don't Tell Sophia (Congaree) Sims Churchill and Oaklawn specialist. The biggest question is can she travel outside that comfort zone.
10 Stanwyck (Empire Maker) Shirreffs For purposes of this list, I'm assuming she is still in New York. Really think she could be following in her big brothers footsteps in the leadup to the Distaff.
11 Antipathy (A.P Indy) McLaughlin Could be the X factor when this is all said and done.
12 Molly Morgan (Ghostzapper) Romans I really was debating on leaving her on the list or not... and I realized that who she was going to be replaced with is untested.

 Horses Removed: Princess of Sylmar (Majestic Warrior)- Retired, which isn't too surprising considering how she ran this year. However, would have fun to see her try the Beldame again.

Joint Return (Include): Two horses overcame the track bias... she couldn't.

Others Considered: Stopshoppingdebbie (Curlin), Parranda (English Channel), Jojo Warrior (Pioneerof the Nile)

Classic

Rank Horse (Sire) Trainer Profile
1 Shared Belief (Candy Ride (ARG)) Hollendorfer Extended his lead with California Chrome's loss in the PA Derby.
2 Wicked Strong (Hard Spun) Jerkins There is a chance that the Jockey Club Gold Cup will in all likelihood be his final start at the age of 3. For now though, going to keep him on here until we officially know.
3 V.E. Day (English Channel) Jerkins Would be interesting if he could pull of a Tiznow like second half of the year and win the JCGC and BC to end the year. That certainly would throw a wrench into things. However, he has to prove that the Travers was no fluke.
4 Moreno (Ghostzapper) Guillot Returns to his preferred distance next week. He has turned it on since the Whitney.
5 Tonalist (Tapit) Clement Return to Belmont hopefully will be helpful... but I think I'm starting to lose a little bit of faith in him.
6 Bayern (Offlee Wild) Baffert Loose lead means that he is gone. Should get pressure in the Classic. The only reason I have him this low, is the fact the last time he went a mile and a quarter... he finished last.
7 Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron) Plesa Skipping the JCGC for the Kelso. Interesting move. Why so? Uncle Mo did that as a 3yo... and it failed at the end.
8 Toast of New York (Theywayyouare) Osbourne Is officially Classic bound. Dirt is a question mark, but Europeans have shown that they can run well on it.
9 Majestic Harbor (Rockport Harbor) McCarthy If anyone is going to stop the Shared Belief express... this could be the guy to do so.
10 California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) Sherman How the mighty have fallen... He might have needed a race, but that PA Derby didn't look good at all.
11 Zivo (True Direction) Brown The older horses on the East Coast took a major hit with Palace Malice's retirement and the possible retirement of Will Take Charge (as of this writing I'm not sure what to believe). The good news? He has a G2 at this distance and track where he is running next.
12 Tapiture (Tapit) Asmussen A mile and a quarter likely a little bit longer then he really wants to go. However, if a fast pace comes... watch out.


Removed: Palace Malice (Curlin)- Bone bruise found on a scan a few weeks ago ended not only his season, but his career. A shame really because of a rebound in the JCGC was very possibly.

Moonshine Mullin (Albert the Great)- Season over, Oaklawn next for him.

Other's Considered: Candy Boy (Candy Ride (ARG)), Imperative (Bernardini), Departing (War Front)


 Honorable Mention goes to Game On Dude (Awesome Again) who retired this week. Best Breeders' Cup Classic finish was 2nd to Drosselmeyer (Distorted Humor) and ahead of that year's Horse of the Year Havre de Grace (Saint Liam).

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